Poisson Probability Calculator
Calculate probabilities for player prop bets using the Poisson distribution. Perfect for analyzing scoring events, attempts, and other countable statistics.
Calculator Inputs
Enter the expected average and proposition value for your analysis
Historical average rate (e.g., player's average points, rebounds, assists per game)
The number used in the prop bet line (whole numbers only)
Results
Poisson probability calculations
Enter values to calculate probabilities
How to Use This Calculator
Step by Step Guide
- Find the player's historical average for the specific stat (points, rebounds, assists, etc.)
- Enter this average in the "Expected Average" field
- Enter the whole number from the sportsbook's over/under line
- Click "Calculate Probabilities" to see the results
- Compare calculated probabilities with sportsbook's implied odds to find value
What is Poisson Distribution?
The Poisson distribution is a probability model that describes the likelihood of a given number of events occurring within a fixed interval, assuming events occur independently at a known average rate. In sports betting, it's particularly useful for analyzing player prop bets.
Example Use Cases
- Basketball: Points, rebounds, assists, three-pointers made
- Baseball: Strikeouts, hits, home runs, RBIs
- Football: Passing yards, rushing attempts, receptions
- Soccer: Goals, shots on target, corners, cards
Important Limitations
- Assumes events are independent (not always true in sports)
- Doesn't account for game context, injuries, or matchups
- Works best with large sample sizes and consistent conditions
- Should be combined with other analysis methods for best results