Match Poisson Calculator

Calculate match outcome probabilities using expected goals (xG) and Poisson distribution. Perfect for analyzing football betting markets.

Expected Goals Input

Enter the expected goals for both teams

Results

Match outcome probabilities

Enter expected goals values to calculate probabilities

How to Use This Calculator

Step by Step Guide

  1. Find the expected goals (xG) for both teams
  2. Enter the home team's xG in the first field
  3. Enter the away team's xG in the second field
  4. Click "Calculate Probabilities" to see all market outcomes
  5. Compare calculated probabilities with bookmaker odds to find value

Understanding the Markets

Market Explanations

  • Result: Home win, draw, or away win
  • Double Chance: Two outcomes combined (e.g., Home or Draw)
  • Total: Over/under total goals in the match
  • Handicap: Goals advantage/disadvantage applied to teams
  • Both to Score: Whether both teams will score

Important Notes

  • Based on Poisson distribution model
  • Assumes independent goal-scoring events
  • Should be combined with other analysis methods
  • xG data quality affects accuracy